Will a nuclear fallout ever happen?

In a survey of experts at the Global Conference on Catastrophic Risks in Oxford (July 17-20, 2000), the Future of Humanity Institute estimated that the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons was 1% in the century, the probability of 1 billion deaths with 10% and the probability of one million of the dead with 30%. The worst impact would occur in mid-latitudes, including barn areas such as the Midwest of the United States and Ukraine.

Will a nuclear fallout ever happen?

In a survey of experts at the Global Conference on Catastrophic Risks in Oxford (July 17-20, 2000), the Future of Humanity Institute estimated that the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons was 1% in the century, the probability of 1 billion deaths with 10% and the probability of one million of the dead with 30%. The worst impact would occur in mid-latitudes, including barn areas such as the Midwest of the United States and Ukraine. Grain reserves would disappear in a year or two. Most countries would not be able to import food from other regions because they too would be suffering from poor harvests, says Jägermeyr.

It's the most detailed look in history of how the aftermath of a nuclear war would affect food supplies, he says. The researchers did not explicitly estimate how many people would die of hunger, but rather said that the ensuing famine would be worse than any other in documented history. A gust of air can produce minimal rain if the fireball doesn't touch the ground. On the other hand, a nuclear explosion that occurs at or near the Earth's surface can cause serious pollution from radioactive fallout.

The ACS regulations against the potential consequences of nuclear reactors focused on the power plant's capacity for the maximum credible accident (MCA). Because of this, steps must be taken to ensure that the risk of nuclear rain in nuclear reactors is controlled. It also offers a brochure from the 1950s on the consequences and several images related to nuclear weapons tests and rain shelters. There are three very different versions of the precipitation pattern of this test, because rainfall was measured only in a small number of widely spaced Pacific atolls.

In the 1950s and 60s, the United States Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) began developing nuclear fallout safety standards for civil nuclear reactors. The highest levels of outdoor rain radiation occur immediately after the arrival of rain and then decrease over time. The dangers of nuclear fallout are not limited to an increased risk of cancer and radiation sickness, but also include the presence of radionuclides in human organs from food. Knowing the potential environmental consequences of a nuclear conflict can help legislators assess the threat, says Seth Baum, executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute in New York City, who has studied the risks of triggering a nuclear winter.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) The CTBT is a legally binding global ban on the testing of nuclear explosives. The consequences can also relate to nuclear accidents, even though a nuclear reactor does not explode like a nuclear weapon. But with many thousands of nuclear warheads still in existence, and with more nations becoming nuclear powers, some researchers have argued that nuclear war and the nuclear winter remain a threat. A nuclear weapon detonated in the air, called an air blast, produces less rain than a comparable explosion near the ground.

One example is the 1962 Federal Radiation Council report, entitled “Health Implications of Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing through 1961.Although there is still very little rainfall in the environment, it is important to remember that the consequences can be very dangerous. Based on these estimates, the consequences of the more than 500 megatons of nuclear tests until 1970 will produce between 2 and 25 cases of genetic diseases per million live births in the next generation.

Nanette Thrun
Nanette Thrun

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